TGS, the leading global provider of energy data and intelligence, has released its latest Market Overview Report, powered by 4C Offshore market intelligence. This comprehensive analysis offers an early assessment of the global offshore wind industry for the rest of 2024, building upon the insights provided by last year’s report, which anticipated a record-breaking auction year for the sector. The Q1 report looks at whether 2024 is still expected to deliver on that promise.
The offtake auction schedule continues to reflect a healthy outlook following heightened activity last year. Notably, the TGS report indicates that 32.9 GW of capacity is set to be included in offtake auctions globally in 2024, with Europe accounting for 24.5 GW of this figure.
In 2023 the global offshore wind sector fully commissioned 7 GW, and this has been followed by 592 MW in Q1 2024. This includes Vattenfall’s 344 MW Vesterhav Nord/Syd, the first commercial-scale project in the USA (Ørsted’s 132 MW South Fork), the 112 MW Ishikari Bay New Port project in Japan and China’s 4 MW Longyuan Nanri Island floater.
Additionally, the report noted that 2024 is poised to witness a surge in corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs). Nearly 1 GW of offshore wind capacity has already been transacted through long-term contracts, and corporate demand for PPAs is expected to remain robust.
Throughout the first quarter, the global industry has been marked by several significant developments. Germany launched tenders for 8 GW of capacity, albeit facing grid delays that pose challenges to the 2030 pipeline. In the UK, discussions continue around the over-cautious application of reference prices in Allocation Round Six (AR6) and in Norway the winner of their first-ever offshore wind site and auction round, for the Sørlige Nordsjø II lease area was announcedn- the Ventyr consortium, consisting of Parkwind and Ingka Investments.
Meanwhile, the United States saw progress with its first commercial-scale project in federal waters, and East Coast states secured record amounts of new and re-bid capacity, with New York and New Jersey taking steps to address setbacks from offtake withdrawals last year. In the Asia Pacific region, India initiated its first offshore wind tender in Tamil Nadu after years of delays, while Taiwan reviewed its environmental impact assessment process and Australia’s offshore wind future saw emerging details and challenges.
However, the report also notes that this is the first Q1 since 2017 that no investment decisions have been made, although imminent announcements are expected.
Richard Aukland, Director of Research at TGS – 4C Offshore, remarked, “We observe a resilient industry with a significant long-term pipeline, with some markets, for example the US, reclaiming lost ground. However, the UK’s pipeline risks further delays unless adjustments are made to this year’s auction parameters. Global political ambition remains strong and steady, now exceeding 758 GW, with approximately half of this capacity targeted in Europe.”
Despite a slight downward adjustment in TGS’s 2030 forecast, which now stands at 261 GW under construction or operational, there is a notable increase in the longer-term prediction to 2040, reaching 563 GW (both figures are compared to Q4 2023 forecasts). While this adjustment reflects some delays and shifts in project timelines, it underscores the industry’s strong ambition and commitment to growth.
TGS releases regular intelligence reports on a wide variety of offshore energy subjects, powered by 4C Offshore market intelligence. These include wind farms, construction & heavy maintenance, wind logistics, and offshore transmission and cables.
